More Reports

MORE  REPORTS. Our first report came out Monday at 10 AM central time with the weekly   export inspection report. For corn 22.8 million bushels were inspected to be shipped near-term about unchanged from last week's 22.3 it's consistent with the four-week average and shows that there's at least some demand even at lofty prices. Soybeans showed 18.9 million bushels will inspected to be shipped near-term up sharply from 14.6 last week and well over the four-week average. Of the total China was in for 10.7 million bushels versus 5 million last week and the three prior weeks of 4,3 and 7 m.b. China's desperate need for high protein vegetable oil crops has them buying even as the market makes new highs for the year. Note, last week. China was in one day for 1.9 million metric tons the fifth largest single daily purchase. Monday at 3 PM central our crop condition report came out. Corn came in at 40% in good to excellent condition, versus 48 last week and 69% a year ago. The driest areas in the Eastern grain belt read like this. Illinois 19% good to excellent, down seven, Indiana 12% down six, Missouri 12%, down six and Ohio 28%, down five from the week prior. Dry weather this week looks to have another cut in condition  on Mondays update. The Western grain belt fared about as bad with Iowa 46%, down 16% from the week prior and Nebraska 47% down nine. Kansas 19%, down seven, should have fewer and fewer people thinking that with the wheat harvest winding down in Kansas that growers will risk double cropping by planting soybeans in such dry soil. Soybeans conditions were 40% good to excellent versus 55% last week and 66% a year ago. Illinois 20%, down eight, Indiana 14% down six, Ohio 27% down two and Missouri 13% down five. Western grain belt is trying to catch up with Iowa at 48% down 11 and Nebraska 41% down four. Like corn, expect beans on Mondays update to show further declines in the condition. The finale report was today's USDA monthly crop production report. All eyes were generally on the ending stocks numbers for the 2012-13 crop season which begins September 1 and ends August 31, 2013. Corn ending stocks were put at 1.183 b.b. down from 1.881 last month due to a cut in yield from 166 bushels per acre to 146 bushels per acre. Feed use was cut, but consider this, beans stocks are heading lower so expect more corn in the feed ration because of the high price of soy meal as exporters push more soy meal into the food ration in the European and Asian markets. Soybeans ending stocks came in at 130 million bushels a 10 year low versus 140 last month. They raised exports 5 million bushels and the crush up a 15 m.b. Certainly a very friendly number near-term and bullish long term, but I suggest it's probably a little conservative. After pushing corn and soybean prices sharply higher after the report pricing in the bullish numbers ,corn and soybean prices fell to down on the day. This was easy to call. On two fronts. One, trend following funds have taken profits after every monthly crop report this year and 10 of 12 months last year, as taking profits and paying month-end bonuses on profits taking is a regular practice. Two, WXRISK.com the weather site expects rain over 45% of the Midwest grain belt next week. There is  certainly time to dry this rain up and take it out of the forecast but if the rain totals come in as expected it will be very timely for the last two weeks of the silking stage for corn and the beginning of the pods sending stage for beans. Worst-case scenario for December corn would be a pullback to about 6.22 and soybeans 14.85. Because we don't have another supply side concerning report until August, the market now reverts back to weather as the primary pricing source. Tim Hannagan pfg

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Livestock Research(25)

 Monday 9:40AM 7/9/12

HOGS

Pork product continues to work its way lower as July 4th business is finished. Last week we lost a rather large $5.30 on wholesale pork and the previous week we lost $5.38 on product. This two week decline of over $10.00 is about as big a decline as we ever see. The problem at the present time is a fairly current producer inventory of market ready hogs. This is keeping the current cash hog market from having much of a selloff, and with product sharply lower the last several weeks, pork packer operating margins are over $22.00/head negative and at record losses. Last year, at this time, pork packer operating margins were a positive $3.33/hd..

Traders are fully aware of the 2-3 weeks pork product selloff that takes place after July 4th business has been completed and this was the single biggest reason for August hog futures to close 145 points lower for the week. The present problem going forward is that August futures have a rather large 736 point discount to the lean-hog-index (100.66) and this is keeping traders from wanting to seriously attack the short side of August. With a tight near term supply of market ready hogs it is going to be tough to take a lot out of the cash hog market over the next several weeks. This will probably keep the present downside correction to no more than 250-400 points. In addition, hog weights are staying on the light side as extreme summer heat is limiting weight gains.

Spread trades will be the biggest focus this week as corn continues higher on lack of moisture. Most traders will be buying December and back hog futures against selling August as feed costs escalate. There will some additional selling of August against buying of July as July went home last Friday with a 444 points discount to the lean index and this must narrow by July’s last trading day next Monday.

If you are short August futures below 9475 you should look to take profits somewhere in the 9100-9350 area. Unless we see a good break in the cash hog market we will not be able to get a sizeable break in the lean-hog-index and with August futures at the present 736 point discount there could be little on the down side this week. Spread pressure may keep August on the defensive, but a two week wholesale pork product break of over $10.00 may see near term product weakness decline.

At this time do not turn an August profit into a loss.

CATTLE

We have priced wholesale beef out of retailer interest. Choice boxed beef was $1.13 lower Friday and down $2.01 for the week against being $0.59 higher for this week last year. Select boxed beef was a large $3.38 lower for the week being $1.91 higher last year.

The biggest thing that shows beef business is seasonally slowing is daily/ weekly volume. U.S.D.A. date for Friday morning showed wholesale beef loads were the lightest of the year at 74 loads and weekly total boxed beef volume of 797 loads was over 14% less than the previous week, 25% less than last year and 30% less than this same week in 2010.

Small volumes of cash cattle traded $1.00 higher for the week with Southern Plains at $117.00 and Nebraska carcass at $186.00-$188.00. As of 2PM Friday there were no cash cattle sales in Nebraska. Most traders believe beef packers are finding near term feedlot market ready cattle to be tight as excessive heat has limited weight gains and in many cases is finding cattle losing weight the last few weeks. There is constant talk of feedlots moving light weight cattle to market as corn prices go over $7.00 per bushel, but that does not appear to be the case last week.

Like hog futures, we will see a lot of traders buying December and back futures against selling August/October this week as long as corn continues higher. August is a easy short side of these spreads as July is never a good demand month for beef (heat brings less outdoor grilling) and back month cattle futures are an easy buy as traders thing less cattle will be placed into feedlots in the coming months as corn continues marching higher.

We wanted to add a second short unit to August shorts we have been in from the 118.00-119.50 area, but cash cattle trading an unexpected $1.00 higher last week will keep this on the back burner for the moment.

You should liquidate this trade should August cattle futures trade over 122.62 for more than two hours.

Substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authoriz

Weekly S&P Report(67)

Weekly S and P Report Comments
By Sean Lusk, PFGBEST
1-877-294-7757
slusk@PFGBEST.com
July 7, 2012

E Mini S&P settles 1351.75 down 4.75
For the week ended (7/2-7/6)

Stock futures ended the week lower following yet another dismal jobs report for the month of June. The Dow and S&P posted weekly losses, while the NASDAQ managed to squeeze out a gain for the fifth consecutive week. For the week, the Dow lost 0.84 percent, the S&P lost 0.55 percent, while the NASDAQ posted a gain of just 0.08 percent. The CBOE volatility index, considered the best gauge of fear in the market, ended near 17. Non- farm payrolls rose by only 80K, according to the Labor department, missing expectations of a gain of 90K. The unemployment rate remained steady at 8.2 percent. With yet another month of weak employment growth, the second quarter ranks as the weakest three month period in the last two years. This has fueled speculation that the Fed will step in with additional monetary easing . Recent economic reports have been dismal with the ISM manufacturing index earlier this week indicating a contraction for the first time in nearly three years. The Euro slumped against the Dollar, to trade at a two year low on Friday. This move lower comes a day after the ECB cut its rates by a quarter of a point and slashed deposit rates to zero. Also, the Bank of England moved forward with more quantitative easing, while the People’s Bank of China moved forward with surprise rate cuts. Still, central bank efforts did little to raise equities. IMF President Christine Lagarde voiced concern over a slowdown in developed and big emerging economies echoing concerns voiced by ECB President Mario Draghi who said the euro zone economy would recover only gradually.
Heading into next week, the second quarter earnings season kicks off with just a few reports, but they will be important early looks at whether the fallout from Europe and the slower global growth is hurting corporate America. Alcoa kicks off earnings season after the bell Monday. After Friday’s disappointing U.S. jobs payrolls, jobs related data, such as Thursday’s weekly jobless claims, will be closely monitored, as will the minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting Wednesday. But more important perhaps is a batch of fresh Chinese data, starting off Monday with inflation and export data, and winding down Friday with GDP, retail sales and industrial output. China, the world’s second largest economy surprised markets with a second round of interest rate cuts in the past week, raising speculation that the data will be weak. My swing numbers for next week come in as follows for the mini S&P. Support is down first at 1337.50 and with a close under, 1323.50 the next level down. Resistance is up at 1370.25 and with a close over 1389.00 the next level to the upside. 
 

Daily Swing #s ESU (7/9)
R2-1374.50
R1-1363.25
Pivot-1352.75
S1-1341.50
S2-1331.00

Weekly Swing #s ESU2 (7/9-7/13)
R2-1389.00
R1-1370.25
Pivot-1356.25
S1-1337.50
S2-1323.50

Daily Swing #s YMU2 (7/9)
R2-12950
R1-12838
Pivot-12739
S1-12627
S2-12528

Weekly Swing #s YMM2 (7/9-7/13)
R2-13038
R1-12882
Pivot-12761
S1-12605
S2-12138
 

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Livestock Research(24)

Fri., July 6, 2012 at 9:25 a.m. Central:

Hogs:

We continue to break wholesale pork product as seasonal July 4 business is over. We lost 92 cents on product last night and are now down a rather large $4.79 after losing $5.38 last week. As product goes south pork packers have not been able to break the cash hog market this week as extreme heat has keep hog barn doors closed. This combination now finds packer operating margins at a yearly worst of $22.44 loss per hog. This negative operating margin has traders thinking cooler weather next week will allow producers to move hogs to market and this increased supply with the year’s worst operating margin will see cash hogs break $3 to $4 next week.

We went home last night with August hog futures at a sizeable discount to the lean hog index (10090) of 803 points against a 2-year average negative discount of 76 points. This rather large discount is giving us the early 140-point rally.

Today’s early high for August futures is 9430 and a 200-day moving average will probably find trader selling into the close as they look for lower hog prices next week making the lean hog index work lower. Remember, the lean index is nothing more than cash hogs being divided by hog weight. Traders think cash hogs will decline more than hog weights (due to the heat), thereby taking the lean hog index down.

If you did get short August hog futures on a close under 9475 you still have the 9320 to 9350 area as support with excellent support in the 9100 to 9225 area. I think it will be tough to take August futures under 9100 to 9225 area next week unless outside markets are going sharply lower. I would look to cover in the 9100 to 9350 area. I realize this is a large 250-point range, but the sizeable discount is making it tough to predict a bottom.

Should cash hogs have their expected large cash break next week, helping operating margins, we will be looking to get long August futures sometime late in the week.

Cattle:

No one seems to know why boxed beef is holding as well as it has the last several weeks. Choice boxed beef was actually 35 cents higher last night, but is a small $1.09 lower for the week. Select was $1.52 lower yesterday and down a larger $2.25 for the week. The choice/select spread has choice at a 1,773 premium to select against a 2-year average premium of 753. This seems to indicate wholesale beef is still moving at decent volume in spite of extreme heat limiting outdoor grilling at a time when choice boxed beef at $193.57 is just 2.6% under yearly highs. Yesterday’s 3-day volume of 690 loads was just 6.2% less than last year’s 3-day volume at a time when wholesale choice beef is priced 7.7% over last year.

Beef packer operating margins are close to $60/head positive against a positive $25/head last year and this is getting some trader attention as a positive going forward.

We are short August cattle futures from the $118 to $119.50 area looking for extreme summer heat to further curtail weak July boxed beef interest. June and July are the two worst demand months of the year for beef, but this year we pushed boxed beef higher into the end of June as retailers put off pre-booking spring/early summer grilling needs as they watched cattle futures implode for a 10-week downside correction of 1900 points into the end of April. This late booking of grilling needs has pushed wholesale beef higher into late June (choice beef topped at $197.93 on June 27) and we are now seeing a correction, but at a very slow pace. Boxed beef prices should start a fairly deep correction in the next several weeks. Most years, a 10% to 12% correction takes place.

We are short August in the $118 $119.50 area and would add an additional unit as boxed prices fall away. At present we wait and watch.

I want to raise our exit point to August futures closing over $122.62 for more than two hours.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Livestock Research(23)

Thur., July 5, 2012 at 9:25 a.m. Central:

Hogs:

Hog futures closed 2 points lower in July and 10 points lower in August July 3 on light daily volume of 39,000 contracts. Many traders are taking extra days off around the July 4 holiday and making light volume days possible/probable into Monday of next week.

Traders know pork product will be making a sharp, short-term downside correction after going from 20% under last year to 0.5% over last year by Monday 6/25/12. We went home Tuesday with the pork composite index at 9156 or 9.6% under the 6/25/12 high of $101.29. We usually expect a 10% to 15% break in product into the second week of July as holiday business has come to an end.

Six trading days ago, August hog futures were a record 1379 discount to the lean hog index. When traders started to worry that this was out of line, we had a 2-day short-covering rally of 490 points. We are now 650 discount to the index against a 2-year average discount of 412. This is more in line with trader expectations and is not now a point of concern, however it is this discount that usually finds hog futures working higher no later than sometime next week as traders know the lean index usually has a seasonal rally, after this selloff, into mid August.

Most years, the lean index by mid-August will be close to the highs made last week of $103.08. With August hog futures going home Tuesday at 9487 it may be tough to have more than a short-term futures break.

Today and possibly tomorrow, traders will be negative in their thinking as extreme heat makes them worry outdoor grilling has been curtailed in the short term, even through the holiday, and this will limit meat purchase for several weeks during this hot spell.

Wholesale pork product lost a large $5.38 last week and has lost another $3.87 the first two days of this week. Pork loins have had a 18% correction from their $1.67/lb. high made last Friday. Pork butts are almost 8% under last week highs. The biggest thing to remember is that with this rapid downside correction in wholesale pork product, we are seeing daily volume pick up. The USDA data shows 202 loads reported for this Monday and Tuesday and this is 71% over the first 2 days last week and almost 52% reported two day volume 2 weeks ago. There appears to be good retailer support developing for pork product on declining wholesale prices.

If this pattern continues into next week, the downside for this break in hog futures will be limited.

Pork belly prices should be working higher as extreme heat should keep near term BLT season business good.

We talked about getting short August hog futures last week with good technical support in the 9320 to 9350 area and more support in the 9100 to 9225 area as the possible area for a bottom to be made. The daily fundamental news for wholesale pork product will stay defensive into early next week, but I would look to take profits, if you’ve gotten short, in one of the two areas mentioned. A protective buy stop should stay the same at 9537. Longer-term, we will be looking to buy August futures looking for a normal seasonal mid-July product rally that should continue into late August.

Cattle:

We lost $1.41 on choice beef Tuesday and are now $1.44 lower for the week against being 58 cents higher last year. Choice boxed beef at $193.22 is just 2.8% under yearly highs made in late February. Boxed beef volume remains better than should be expected at this price level in a bad demand month like July, not to mention the additional problem this year of extreme heat limiting any near-term grilling.

Cash cattle remain stuck at $116 in Texas and Kansas with Nebraska staying at $116 to $117.

August futures went home this past Tuesday at $119.47 or a premium of 347 points to $116 cash in the southern planes. This larger-than-normal premium basis has turned trader attention to selling August (heat slows grilling interest) against buying December and back cattle futures thinking exploding corn prices will severely limit feedlot placements going forward. Traders have been expecting this spread to work for the last several weeks, but today looks to be the start of this spread until corn makes a high.

We went short August cattle futures in the $118 to $119.50 area last week with your choice on a protective stop at $120.10 or $122.37. If you are still short continue with the $122.37 exit point.

Floor traders are not interested in the long side of cattle futures at this time as we are into early July on extreme heat limiting outdoor grilling. We can keep a larger-than-normal basis premium in futures to cash cattle as extreme heat will slow or reverse cattle weight gains and limit near-term supplies.

Near-term cattle futures will have a 200- to 300-point correction should daily boxed beef volume start lower on declining wholesale prices. So far, the 2.4% downside price correction in wholesale boxed beef has not seen volume decline. We should start to see lower daily/weekly boxed beef volume no later than next week.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

The Energy Report(5)

By Kevin Rosenberg,

PFGBEST

(800) 487-3581

krosenberg@pfgbest.com 

Crude Oil:

As is the story with most markets these days, the price of crude oil has relied heavily on economic data to determine its fate.  Interestingly, the same negative data that served to temper optimism surrounding a productive EU summit late last week has now begun to do just the opposite. Yesterday’s slide in the price of oil surrounded weaker than expected economic data out of China.  In the US, the manufacturing sector showed contraction for the first time since July 2009 to a level of 49.7 in June from 53.5 in May.  The US is not alone in its manufacturing struggles.  Euro-zone manufacturing in June contracted at an alarming rate, unemployment remains at an all time high.  The same factors that drove the market lower early in the week, now lend support with a consensus that further economic stimulus is on its way.

More support comes from analyst estimates that Thursday’s Energy Information Administration report will show a decrease in crude oil inventories for the week ending June 29.  Keep an eye out for an American Petroleum Institute report later today.  In the Middle East, Iran has drafted a bill to block the Strait of Hormuz to European and US tankers.  In response, the US plans to increase military presence in the area.  Discussion at last month’s bi annual OPEC meeting surrounded a swift decline in prices.  Several leading countries warned of a private meeting to discuss reducing its production ceiling. The expectation that supply will continue to tighten for the near term has analysts predicting that a three month slide in the price of crude oil is nearing its end.

Technicals:  Today’s pivot is 83.63 with resistance 1 and 2 coming in at 85.11 and 85.46 respectively.  Support 1 lies at 82.16 with support 2 at 81.81.  Stochastics remain strong as does an RSI reading of 54.33.  A close above yesterdays pivot point of 82.86 lends support.  Be aware of a shortened trading day and tomorrow’s market closure in observance of the 4^th of July.

Reports (All Central time):

7/3 @ 03:30: API Energy Stocks

7/4: Independence Day

7/5 @ 07:30: Initial Jobless Claims

7/5 @ 10:00 EIA Energy Stocks

7/6 @ 09:30 EIA Gas Storage

Kevin Rosenberg

PFGBEST Research Team

800.487.3581

krosenberg@pfgbest.com  

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Livestock Research(21)

Monday 9:30AM 7/2/12

 HOGS

 Hog futures closed 338 higher for the week as most floor traders were short looking for a normal seasonal downside correction to pork product as July 4^th business ended. Unfortunately, we came into Wednesday morning with August futures a record discount to the  lean-hog-index of 1,379 points Tuesday evening. For whatever reason early Wednesday chatter centered on the discount with traders running to cover short positions. This short covering gave us a Wednesday-Thursday rally of 490 points and an additional 85 points on Friday as all outside markets were sharply higher.

Open interest for August hog futures declined 5,582 contracts for the week with total hog open interest down 7,134.

This being a holiday week traders know we will back-up over 100,000 market ready hogs. This makes them worry that the cash hog market will come under pressure as the week unfolds. This year that concern is a little less intense as high temperatures are keeping many hop operations from sending hogs to market as opening hog barn doors can lead to further increases in confinement temperature and can lead to weight loss and/or death.

As holiday pork buying came to an end we lost a rather large $5.38 in product last week against $2.53 last year and $1.43 in 2010. Product normally breaks into the second week of July and then goes higher into the first or second week in August.

Friday’s quarterly Pig Crop was considered a little friendly for third and fourth quarter hog  numbers as the two lightest weight groups showed a reduction of almost one million hogs that will be marketed during this time period. Other than this all categories were within 1% of analyst estimates. A report like this will be forgotten by late Tuesday.

Many traders are taking Monday and Tuesday off in front of the July 4^th holiday with others taking Thursday and Friday. This will make for light participation and could cause extreme daily moves.

August hog futures closed at 9475 Friday just 20 points from a 66% retracement of the 10 week selloff of almost 1,500 points. Traders found resting stops above this area early this morning with August going 157 points higher in the first 10 minutes. Unless outside markets work sharply higher the next several days it should be tough for hog futures to work higher, although there is probably little on the down side with many traders not here.

I have no short term opinion, but with last week’s rally and going into a holiday hold back of market hogs there is no reason to be establishing long positions. If you do trade this week I would look to the short side assuming August can close below Friday’s close of 9475.

CATTLE

There was little fundamental news for cattle traders last week. Choice boxed beef lost $2.24 for the week with select down a similar $2.36. Choice beef was a small 1.4% lower for June, but at Friday’s close of $194.66 is still just 2% under yearly highs made in late February. June beef demand was much better than most years as retailers put off booking beef in March and April as meat futures imploded with trader worries about $3.98 average gasoline prices curtailing consumer meat purchases. Traders still look for July to be a disappointment for beef sales as seasonally grilling business falls away with a corresponding 10-12% reduction in boxed beef wholesale prices. This year that thinking has intensified as extreme summer heat is thought to have put a bigger dent in beef grilling going forward.

For the most part August cattle futures being 365 points higher for the week came about as they were pulled higher by stock indices being over two percent higher for the week, corn being 14% higher for the week and hog futures being almost 4% higher for the week. Unfortunately we don’t trade in a vacuum and we occasionally have a week like last week. The important thing to take away from last week is we find beef packers not paying higher for cash cattle with a big rally in cattle futures. This tells us packers are a little concerned where July beef business will come from.

Cash cattle were unchanged for the week at $116.00-$117.00 on very light numbers and a 12% reduction from late February $132.00 highs. We normally expect a 12-14% cash cattle decline into late July or early August and we seem to be on this road at present.

Extreme heat causes cattle to lose weight, potentially bullish for August, and at the same time traders know outside grilling slows with a corresponding lessening in demand. One sort of cancels the other in the near term, but closing sharply higher last week from outside markets should find a lack of floor trader buying interest this week with the very real possibility of some selling showing up. Like hogs, this is not the week to try being long unless the market has a serious 250-400 point correction.

We have been short August cattle from the 118.00-119.50 area with your choice to exit, with a loss, at 120.10 or stay using a buy-stop at 122.37. I can’t predict weeks like the one just past where everything goes sharply higher and carries a market we are short with it. If you are still short I would not get out unless the market goes above 122.37 for more than two hours. Beef packers reluctance to pay higher for cash cattle probably means their “push lists” are building as they find summer heat quickly slowing demand. This should be the biggest trader worry this week into next.

Substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authoriz

IMM Currency Specs added to massive net long Euro bets, latest CFTC data shows

Currency Analysis

By Paul Kavanaugh, PFGBEST

1-888-439-6033

pkavanaugh@pfgbest.com

-41st straight week of net long US dollar bets

-Net Long US dollar bets rose by 22.78% from $22.13 billion to $26.73 billion according to CFTC data as of June26^th data (source Reuters)

-Large speculators maintaining significant percentage of near all-time record net short Euro bets

-Large speculators increasing net short Swiss Franc bets by more than double

CFTC data released Friday June 29th shows large IMM currency speculators are still hold near all-time record net short positions in Euro, and have covered more that 95% of net short British Pound Sterling positions. The most recent Commitments of Traders data shows some significant percentage changes in speculative positions in the currencies from the prior week including the following:

Commitments of Traders Data

(Non-Commercial Net Position Data)

A minor 13.12% increase from 8,201 to 9,277 contracts net long of the Canadian dollar;

A massive 240.17% increase from 7,007 to 23,836 contracts net short of the Swiss Franc;

A nearly reversing 95.58% decrease from 17,153 to just 758 contracts net short of the British Pound Sterling;

A significant 69.99% decrease from 15,137 to just 4,542 contracts net long of the Japanese Yen;

A steady 13.33% increase from 141,066 to 159,880 contracts net short of the Euro;

And an important 37.56% decrease from 3,458 to 2,159 contracts net short of the Australian dollar, (following significant recent net short positions);

(Source CFTC.gov)

See what PFGBEST analysts have to say about the markets for MIDYEAR 2012...keep an eye on PFGBEST website to get the PFGBEST MIDYEAR Outlook 2012 coming soon!

Read my most recent contribution to SFO Magazine’s "From the Experts" Column

Sell Silver First of May, Walk Away ‘Till Labor Day?

http://bit.ly/IKLy8d

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Good Trading!

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

CFTC data released Friday June 29th shows large IMM currency speculators are still hold near all-time record net short positions in Euro, and have covered more that 95% of net short British Pound Sterling positions. The most recent Commitments of Traders data shows some significant percentage changes in speculative positions in the currencies from the prior week including the following:

Commitments of Traders Data

(Non-Commercial Net Position Data)

A minor 13.12% increase from 8,201 to 9,277 contracts net long of the Canadian dollar;

A massive 240.17% increase from 7,007 to 23,836 contracts net short of the Swiss Franc;

A nearly reversing 95.58% decrease from 17,153 to just 758 contracts net short of the British Pound Sterling;

A significant 69.99% decrease from 15,137 to just 4,542 contracts net long of the Japanese Yen;

A steady 13.33% increase from 141,066 to 159,880 contracts net short of the Euro;

And an important 37.56% decrease from 3,458 to 2,159 contracts net short of the Australian dollar, (following significant recent net short positions);

(Source CFTC.gov)

See what PFGBEST analysts have to say about the markets for MIDYEAR 2012...keep an eye on PFGBEST website to get the PFGBEST MIDYEAR Outlook 2012 coming soon!

Read my most recent contribution to SFO Magazine’s "From the Experts" Column

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Good Trading!

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Weekly S&P Report(66)

Daily S&P Report Comments

by Sean Lusk, PFGBEST

1-877-294-7757

slusk@PFGBEST.com
Saturday, June 30, 2012

E Mini S&P settles 1356.50 up 29.75
For the week ended (6/25-6/29)

Stock futures posted a major rally on Friday to close out a weak second quarter performance on a high note as investors cheered an agreement by European leaders to stabilize the region’s banks. The rally today was the best one day performance for the S&P 500 since December 20th and trimmed its quarterly loss to 3.3 percent. The second quarter decline marked the first negative quarterly performance in the last three as uncertainty over the future of the Euro zone particularly the fiscal solvency of namely Greece and Spain roiled global financial markets. Euro zone leaders on Friday at a summit in Brussels agreed that member nations would be able to recapitalize banks directly without increasing a country’s budget deficit. Struggling EU member nations will now have the availability to use euro area rescue funds to stabilize bond markets. European shares jumped to finish at a seven week high following the deal announcement. In addition to the EU deal, there was also short covering by many investors as it was month and quarter end, with many portfolios evening up before the closing bell on Friday which aided the rally. Italian and Spanish borrowing costs fell, though they remained not far from recent highs. Investors’ expectations for any meaningful action during the two day EU summit had dissipated, giving markets to room to bounce on the unexpected EU deal. The mini Dow Jones futures contract gained 282 points in trading Friday while the NASDAQ100 posted an 82 point gain. For the week the Dow posted a gain of 1.9 percent, the S&P rose 2 percent, and the NASDAQ posted a 1.5 percent gain. For the 2nd quarter, the Dow fell 2.5 percent, then S&P lost 3.3 percent, and the NASDAQ lost 5.1 percent.
The EU summit news overshadowed a batch of mixed economic data in the U.S. throughout the week as consumer spending fell in May along with auto purchases dropping. A gauge on consumer confidence hit a six month low in June coinciding with worries over the future of the economy. While a gauge on manufacturing picked up on Friday in the Midwest, factories in that region saw a modest decline in new orders.
Heading into next week, usually a vacation week due to the 4th of July holiday, there is a series of market events that will certainly have the market’s attention and could set market direction for the remainder of July. First and most important is the monthly jobs report released Friday. Early estimates are for very tepid job growth. But it is being closely monitored by the Fed since the lack of any sustainable job growth is considered a major trigger for further Fed easing. I will have pre- report guesstimates for the non-farm number later in the week. There is also a slew of other economic data such as ISM manufacturing data, along with auto and chain store sales, which could reveal how strong consumer spending is. The European Central Bank holds a much- anticipated rates meeting Thursday, with the consensus is that the central bank will cut its main refinancing rate by 25 basis points to 0.75 percent and may trim the deposit rate, which is the rate it pays banks for parking money with it, by 25 basis points to 0 percent. My swing numbers for this holiday shortened week come in as follows for the mini S&P. Support is down first at 1319.50 and with a close under, 1282.50 the next level to the downside. Resistance is up at 1376.50 and with a close above here 1396.50 the next level to the upside. Please call or email me with any questions or comments.

Daily Swing #s ESU2 (7/2)
R2-1387.50
R1-1372.00
Pivot-1344.00
S1-1328.50
S2-1300.50

Weekly Swing #s ESU2 (7/2-7/6)
R2-1396.50
R1-1376.50
Pivot-1339.50
S1-1319.50
S2-1282.50

Daily Swing #s YMU2 (7/2)
R2-13062
R1-12935
Pivot-12707
S1-12580
S2-12352

Weekly Swing #s YMU (7/2-7/6)
R2-13130
R1-12968
Pivot-12672
S1-12510
S2-12214

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

ACRES…………….

ACRES……………. The weekly  export sales report Thursday for corn showed 291,000 metric tons was sold the week prior. It's clear that our government is slowing exports near-term until the crop yields are some what determined at the end of July as the current drought shows no sign of stopping. Last year spring floods and hot dry July coupled with the overly aggressive export pace left us with ending stocks this year of 851,000 metric  tons or about a 50 day supply. So expect slow exports to show up until August at the earliest. Bean exports for the week were 792,000 metric tons old and new crop year combined. China was in for 400,000 of the total versus the two prior weeks of 535 and 740. It suggests a slowing of demand but with South America sold out, the US is the world's sole port of origin to buy beans from, so demand remains good. Weather remains 90% of the pricing for futures as we move through pollination, corns yield development time and mid-July through August 10 for beans key pod setting stage when yields are made or lost. In the big picture we look to continue warmer and drier than normal. It's been that way since last winter. But each weather update has some rain in the forecast and traders will trade each update as it adds or subtracts rain from the forecast. Rule of thumb for Sunday night openings. If we open higher we close higher. If we open lower, we close lower. Trade on that rule. When we enter the new month we also have to be aware that every month this year we traded higher as the month started into and before the release of the monthly USDA crop report, out on the ninth through 11th of each month. Reason, expectations that demand and usage will further cut ending stocks inventory. This report too, will further cut inventory as early-season drought should have traders looking for a lower yield estimate and production. Friday's USDA final planted acreage report showed 96.400 million acres of corn was planted up from the  March report of 95.864 and the average pre-report estimates of 95.962. Bean acres were 76.100 versus the March report 73.902 and the average estimates of 75.575. Corn and beans were up $.12-$.15 when the report was released, then dropped to down $.12-$.15 as numbers were higher than expected, but only slightly. In large, the numbers were in line with the range of estimates. Next, the weather traders came in and bought the break driving corn and beans 20+ cents higher before settling back at midsession. Weather longs  sold out yesterday ahead of the acreage report. Traders quickly said it's not what you plant but what you grow, how's the weather. Right now all weather models have some rain over the weekend of .50 to 1.3 inches largely over Wisconsin, Iowa, central and northern Illinois and Indiana. The driest areas of Southern Illinois, Indiana and Missouri will stay dry. 60% of the grain belt gets a marginal drink 40% gets worse. The 6 to 10 day Outlook lacks any heat  dome effect but  remains warmer than normal with drier than normal conditions. Should weekend rains fade, look for higher trade to start the week. It's all about the next weather update but keep in mind were in the sixth consecutive month of above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall. We have to assume the same in July, which normally is a wet month. Should July finish like June, 8.00 dollar plus corn and 17.00 dollar plus beans will occur. Reminder, I will be out of my office July 1 to 7. Tim Hannagan pfg

Daily S&P Report(184)

Daily S&P Report Comments

by Sean Lusk, PFGBEST

1-877-294-7757

slusk@PFGBEST.com
Thursday, June 28, 2012 at 5:10 PM

E Mini S&P settles 1322.50 down 3.00

Stock futures fell today as all three indexes staged a late day rally to finish slightly lower for the session. Stock futures plunged in the morning after the Supreme Court upheld the Obama administration’s healthcare overhaul law, while the Euro hit a three month low versus the Dollar. However heavy early losses were stymied as investors covered their short positions into the close following reports that Germany’s Angela Merkel cancelled the EU summit’s press conference tonight, offering some hope the EU leaders are working to form a solution to tackle the region’s debt crisis. On the economic front, GDP increased at a 1.9 percent annual rate, which was unchanged from expectations. Weekly jobless claims fell 6K to a seasonally adjusted 386K, however the previous week was revised higher by 5K. Tomorrow’s releases include a Chicago PMI number and a reading on personal income. Traders should also keep in mind that tomorrow is end of month and end of the 2nd quarter as well. Make no mistake though all eyes will be on the EU summit and headlines from that meeting that could make it a very choppy session in the both the stock indices and in the Euro. Please call me at anytime with questions or comments.

Daily Swing #s ESU2 (6/29)
R2-1340.00
R1-1331.25
Pivot-1319.00
S1-1310.25
S2-1298.00

Daily Swing #s YMU2 (6/29)
R2-12684
R1-12604
Pivot-12490
S1-12410
S2-12296

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

ADDED HEAT………..

ADDED  HEAT……….. Markets had no problem pricing in this week's weather with corn up$. 40, beans and wheat $.50 Monday. We closed last week higher on the week on lack of rain cutting probable quality conditions. But Saturday's weather models took the cooler weather for this week, added a heat dome for Wednesday into Saturday and dried-up any measurable rain expected. This led to sharply higher trade as Sunday electronic trading opened and continuing into Monday. Corn was up limit as corn will have one third of its crop in its key yield development time when yields are made or lost. Weather and its effect on yields will have a much more accelerated effect both ways now on futures. Monday's 3 PM central time weekly crop condition report put corn at 56% good to excellent condition, versus 63 the week prior, 68 a year ago and down for the third consecutive week. Big losers were as expected in the Eastern grain belt with Illinois 37% good to excellent down 15, Indiana 27% down 10, Missouri 34% down 6 and Ohio 51% down 2. With Western grain belt states over the national average traders will  over emphasize weather in the  Eastern grain belt. Beans came in at 53% good to excellent versus 56 last week, 65 ayear ago and down for the third consecutive week. Big losers were Illinois 35%, down 12, Indiana 24 down 8 and Missouri 26%, down 3. WXRISK.com the AG weather site has a heat dome centered in the Midwest Wednesday through Sunday. Very high heat with only light rain mostly in the western grain belt. Next week looks warm, but no high heat and .75 to 1.50 inches of rain with 70% coverage in the Midwest. After opening higher Monday night off the bullish crop condition report declines, traders took profits. But new players enter Tuesday pushing us to new highs on corn and then more profits taken before settling stronger on the close. Traders have exhausted the weekly  news of little to no rain, hot temperatures and the condition report. You can't get any drier or hotter, so fear is weather could turn cooler and wetter even if only mildly and force more profit-taking especially with the uncertainty of Friday's planted acreage report. Should forecast remove next weeks chance of rain, grain will make new highs very quickly. Friday at 7:30 AM central time the USDA releases its final planted acreage numbers. This report could lead to sweeping moves upon its release, so be cautious here. Should the report come and go without any surprises, we will look to be long into the weekend if weather reports suggest. My general opinion is we will continue warmer and drier than normal. As has been the pattern since last October to date. This will push December corn to 6.40 and November beans 14.75. Note, I will be out of my office next week July 2 through July 6 and no grain report. Technicals read like this. December corn support is 5.96, 5.80 resistance 6.40. November bean support is  14.00,  13.75 resistance 14.75. September wheat support 7.30, 7.20 resistance 7.80.

IMM currency speculators cut short Euro bets by more than 25%, latest CFTC data shows

 Currency Analysis
By Paul Kavanaugh, PFGBEST
1-888-439-6033
pkavanaugh@pfgbest.com
-40th straight week of net long US dollar bets
-Net Long US dollar bets hit declined by 42.91% from 38.77 billion to 22.13 billion according to CFTC data as of June 19th data (source Reuters)
-Large speculators trimming all time record net short Euro bets by more than 25% in the latest week
 -Large speculators nearly reversed recent reversal to net short Australian dollar bets, suggesting another round of commodity price inflation may be on the horizon following recent declines
CFTC data released Friday June 22nd shows large IMM currency speculators are covering over 25% of recent all-time net short Euro positions.  And perhaps even more significant is that after maintaining net long positions for the majority of the past three years, large speculators have nearly reversed recent net short positions in the Australian dollar (often perceived as a commodity currency). The most recent Commitments of Traders data shows some significant percentage changes in speculative positions in the currencies from the prior week including the following:
Commitments of Traders Data
(Non-Commercial Net Position Data)
A sizable 14.75% decrease from 9,620 to 8,201 contracts net long of the Canadian dollar;
A huge 79.09% decrease from 33,521 to just 7,007 contracts net short of the Swiss Franc;
A similar to the Euro 25.78% decrease from 23,112 to 17,153 contracts net short of the British Pound Sterling;
A building 22.99% increase from 12,307 to 15,137 contracts net long of the Japanese Yen;
An incredibly important 27.72% decrease from a near record 195,178 to 141,066 contracts net short of the Euro;
And a nearly reversing 92.39% decrease from 45,459 to just 3,458 contracts net short of the Australian dollar;
(Source CFTC.gov)
See what PFGBEST analysts have to say about the markets for MIDYEAR 2012...keep an eye on PFGBEST website to get the PFGBEST MIDYEAR Outlook 2012 coming soon!
Read my most recent contribution to SFO Magazine’s "From the Experts" Column
Sell Silver First of May, Walk Away ‘Till Labor Day?
http://bit.ly/IKLy8d
(Note: you may need to cut and paste this link into your internet browser’s address line)
Good Trading!
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Exports Slowing

IMM currency speculators added to record net short bets, and increased net short Australian dollar positions

Currency Analysis

By Paul Kavanaugh, PFGBEST

1-888-439-6033

pkavanaugh@pfgbest.com

-38th straight week of net long US dollar bets

-US dollar bets hit highest levels since at least 2008, $39.65 billion according to Reuters

-Large speculators again added to massive net short Euro bets, net shorts hit another record high

-Large speculators cut net long bets in Canadian dollar by over 50%, and added to bets short Australian dollar following last week’s reversal (from net long to net short) 

CFTC data released Friday June 8th shows IMM currency speculators set another all-time record high net short level over 210,000 contracts net short!  Also significant is the shift away from long bets in the Canadian dollar, following last week’s reversal to short in the Aussie dollar.  The most recent Commitments of Traders data shows some significant percentage changes in speculative positions in the currencies from the prior week including the following:

Commitments of Traders Data

(Non-Commercial Net Position Data)

A sharp 56.26% decrease from 34,085 to just 14,906 contracts net long of the Canadian dollar;

A minor 3.45% decrease from 34,851 to 33,648 contracts net short of the Swiss Franc;

A significant 294.37% reversal from net long 1,475 to 2,897 contracts net short of the British Pound Sterling (following last weeks huge risk-off 86.99% decrease in net longs)

A slight 3.27% decrease from 11,690 to 12,703 contracts net short of the Japanese Yen;

A jump on the bandwagon 5.40% increase from 203,415 to another new all-time record 214,418 contracts net short of the Euro;

And an extremely important 44.03% increase from 35,527 to 51,172 contracts in net shorts of the Australian dollar, following last week’s reversal from long-term net long bets.

(Source CFTC.gov)

See what PFGBEST analysts have to say about the markets for 2012...Click on this link or paste in your browser to get the PFGBEST Outlook 2012

http://www.pfgbest.com/Services/Research/Outlook/

Read my most recent contribution to SFO Magazine’s "From the Experts" Column

Sell Silver First of May, Walk Away ‘Till Labor Day?

http://bit.ly/IKLy8d

(Note: you may need to cut and paste these links into your internet browser’s address line)

Good Trading!

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

IMM currency specs increased net short bets on Aussie and Euro, latest CFTC data shows

Currency Analysis

By Paul Kavanaugh, PFGBEST

1-888-439-6033

pkavanaugh@pfgbest.com

-37th straight week of net long US dollar bets

-US dollar bets hit highest levels since at least 2008

-Euro hit lowest level against the US dollar since June 2010, below 1.23

- Large speculators again added to massive net short Euro bets, net shorts hit another record high

-Spanish borrowing costs soar adding to concern Greece may exit Euro

CFTC data released Friday June 1^st shows IMM currency speculators set a record high net short level over 200,000 contracts net short!  Also significant is that (after last week’s reversal from net long to net short) large speculators more than doubled net short positions.  The most recent Commitments of Traders data shows some significant percentage changes in speculative positions in the currencies from the prior week including the following: 

Commitments of Traders Data

(Non-Commercial Net Position Data)

A slight 11.59% decrease from 38,555 to 34,085 contracts net long of the Canadian dollar;

A minor 12.20% decrease from 26,694 to 34,851 contracts net short of the Swiss Franc;

A huge risk-off 86.99% decrease from 11,340 to just 1,475 contracts net long of the British Pound;

A significant 35.10% decrease from 18,015 to 11,690 contracts net short of the Japanese Yen;

A market abhors uncertainty driven 16.99% increase from 195,361 to another new all-time record 203,415 contracts net short of the Euro;

And a potentially bearish harbinger 110.02% increase from 16,898 to 35,527 contracts in net shorts of the Australian dollar.

(Source CFTC.gov)

See what PFGBEST analysts have to say about the markets for 2012...Click on this link or paste in your browser to get the PFGBEST Outlook 2012

http://www.pfgbest.com/Services/Research/Outlook/

Read my most recent contribution to SFO Magazine’s "From the Experts" Column

Sell Silver First of May, Walk Away ‘Till Labor Day?

http://bit.ly/IKLy8d

(Note: you may need to cut and paste these links into your internet browser’s address line)

Good Trading!

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

IMM Currency Specs liquidated long Australian dollar bets reversing to net short, latest CFTC data shows

Currency Analysis

By Paul Kavanaugh, PFGBEST

1-888-439-6033

pkavanaugh@pfgbest.com

-36th straight week of net long US dollar bets

-Euro hit lowest level against the US dollar since June 2010, below 1.24

- Large speculators again added to massive net short Euro bets, net shorts hit another record high

-Spanish borrowing costs soar to 6.67% on Euro zone concerns

-Large speculators reversed to NET SHORT Australian dollar, after cutting long bets in the last two reports

CFTC data released Friday May 25^th shows IMM currency speculators pulled long Aussie bets and went net short, and increased bets against the Euro to another record high net short position. The most recent Commitments of Traders data shows some significant percentage changes in speculative positions in the currencies from the prior week including the following:

Commitments of Traders Data

(Non-Commercial Net Position Data)

A sizeable 24.40% decrease from 51,005 to 38,555 contracts net long of the Canadian dollar;

A significant 30.55% increase from 26,694 to 34,851 contracts net short of the Swiss Franc;

A risk-off 54.67% decrease from 25,021 to 11,340 contracts net long of the British Pound;

A similar 47.50% decrease from 34,315 to 18,015 contracts net short of the Japanese Yen;

A potentially lethal 12.86% increase from 173,869 to another new all-time record  195,361 contracts net short of the Euro;

And risk aversion led 456.94% from net long 4,734 to net short 16,898 contracts of the Australian dollar.

(Source CFTC.gov)

"Take advantage of my mid-session support and resistance levels and charts via E-mail daily! To get your free trial, just send an email with "Mid-Session #s" in the subject line to pkavanaugh@pfgbest.com or call 1-888-439-6033. And if you are ready to open your account just give us a call today!"

See what PFGBEST analysts have to say about the markets for 2012...Click on this link or paste in your browser to get the PFGBEST Outlook 2012

http://www.pfgbest.com/Services/Research/Outlook/

Read my most recent contribution to SFO Magazine’s "From the Experts" Column

Sell Silver First of May, Walk Away ‘Till Labor Day?

http://bit.ly/IKLy8d

(Note: you may need to cut and paste these links into your internet browser’s address line)

Good Trading!

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.